Airlines won’t get all the new airplanes they want for the rest of this decade. Aviation data firm Cirium said in its annual fleet forecast, released October 13, 2026, that manufacturers will be unable to meet demand throughout the 2020s, held back by engine availability, supplier bottlenecks, and certification delays. Cirium now projects about 43,000 new aircraft deliveries from 2026 to 2045, worth $3.2 trillion. That’s 3,500 fewer than the 46,500 it forecast a year ago.
The industry trade group IATA put the current gap in plain terms in June: airlines are short more than 5,000 fuel-efficient aircraft they had expected to have by now. The order backlog is over 18,000 aircraft.
The Key Numbers
| Measure | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Forecast deliveries, 2026–2045 | About 43,000 | Cirium (Oct. 2026) |
| Value of those deliveries | $3.2 trillion (2026 dollars) | Cirium |
| Last year’s forecast | 46,500 deliveries | Cirium (2025) |
| Global passenger fleet by 2045 | Just over 50,000 | Cirium |
| Aircraft order backlog | More than 18,000 | IATA (June 2026) |
| Shortfall vs. airline expectations | More than 5,000 aircraft | IATA |
| Average fleet age | Record 15.2 years | IATA |
| Cost of supply chain failures to airlines in 2025 | At least $11 billion | IATA |
“The aircraft order backlog is over 18,000,” IATA Director General Willie Walsh said when the group laid out its supply chain priorities in June.
Why Manufacturers Can’t Keep Up
Both Cirium and IATA point to the same problems.
Engines. New-generation engines have had durability problems that send them back to the shop sooner than planned. Pratt & Whitney’s geared turbofan inspections, for example, have grounded large numbers of A320neo-family jets in recent years. An airplane without a working engine is just as unavailable as one that was never delivered.
Suppliers. Airbus and Boeing depend on thousands of suppliers. When one part runs short, the whole production line slows.
Certification. New models and variants are taking longer to get approved, which delays when airlines can actually fly them.
Maintenance capacity and parts. IATA adds that shortages of spare parts and maintenance capacity are keeping existing aircraft out of service longer than they should be.
Cirium also cites geopolitical uncertainty and persistent cost pressures. It notes that some near-term factors, like weaker traffic in parts of 2026 and higher fuel costs, are cyclical rather than structural.
How Big Is the Backlog, Really?
Here’s a rough way to picture it. Cirium’s 43,000 deliveries over 20 years works out to about 2,150 a year on average. At that pace, the 18,000-aircraft backlog equals roughly eight years of deliveries before a single new order is added.
The comparison isn’t exact. Cirium’s forecast includes turboprops and freighters, and delivery rates will rise over time rather than stay flat. But it shows the scale: airlines ordering a new jet today are often waiting until well into the 2030s.
That’s also why Cirium cut its forecast even though demand is strong. The issue isn’t how many airplanes airlines want. It’s how many the industry can build. “The pace of growth increasingly depends on the industry’s ability to deliver,” said Stephen Burnside, global head of Cirium’s Ascend consultancy.
What Airlines Are Doing Instead
When new airplanes don’t arrive, airlines keep old ones flying. That has costs:
- Older fleets. The average airline fleet age has hit a record 15.2 years.
- Higher maintenance spending. Older airplanes need more work, more often.
- Higher lease rates. With fewer new jets available, existing aircraft cost more to lease.
- Higher fuel bills. Older airplanes burn more fuel than the new models they were supposed to be replaced by.
IATA estimates these supply chain failures cost airlines at least $11 billion in 2025 alone.
Where the Growth Is
Cirium expects single-aisle jets to make up 76% of the passenger fleet it models, and the Airbus A321neo is the largest single model at 16%. China, India, and the rest of Asia-Pacific account for about 48% of the modelled fleet. Airbus holds 47% of the modelled passenger fleet, Boeing 39%, and China’s COMAC 5%.
The global passenger fleet is projected to pass 50,000 aircraft by 2045.
What It Means for Pilots and Technicians
This is mostly an airline and manufacturer story, but it reaches people training for aviation careers too. Here’s what it may mean, with the caveat that airline hiring depends on many factors besides aircraft supply.
For pilots: Airlines grow capacity by adding airplanes. If deliveries are constrained, growth is slower than demand would otherwise allow, which can moderate how fast airlines expand their pilot ranks. At the same time, airlines keeping older airplanes still need crews to fly them, and pilot retirements continue on schedule regardless of aircraft supply. The shortage shifts the pace of hiring more than the need for pilots.
For maintenance technicians: The effect is more clearly positive. Older fleets need more maintenance, and IATA lists “build human capacity” as one of its four supply chain priorities. Boeing estimates the industry needs about 710,000 new maintenance technicians worldwide over the next 20 years. Constrained maintenance capacity is part of the problem, and that capacity is made of people.
IATA’s Four Priorities
In June, IATA laid out what it thinks would help:
- More supply chain visibility, so airlines and suppliers can see problems coming
- Opening up the aftermarket for parts and repairs, so airlines have more choices
- Using data, digital tools, and AI to manage maintenance and supply better
- Building human capacity, especially the maintenance workforce
IATA’s Stuart Fox, director of flight and technical operations, said solving these problems will take practical action and cooperation across the whole industry.
The Bottom Line
Demand for new airplanes is strong. The constraint is production. Cirium now expects the gap between what airlines want and what manufacturers can deliver to last through the rest of the 2020s, and it trimmed its 20-year forecast by 3,500 aircraft to reflect that. Until supply catches up, airlines will fly older, thirstier, more maintenance-hungry fleets and pay more to do it.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is there a shortage of new airplanes? Cirium and IATA cite engine durability problems and limited engine availability, supplier bottlenecks, longer certification timelines, spare parts shortages, and limited maintenance capacity. Airbus and Boeing depend on thousands of suppliers, and a shortage of any one part can slow production.
How long will the aircraft shortage last? Cirium’s October 2026 forecast says the mismatch between airline demand and manufacturer output will continue throughout the 2020s. Neither Cirium nor IATA has given a firm date for when supply will catch up.
How big is the aircraft order backlog? IATA says the backlog is over 18,000 aircraft. At the average annual delivery pace implied by Cirium’s 20-year forecast, about 2,150 aircraft a year, that’s roughly eight years of deliveries.
How many new aircraft will be delivered by 2045? Cirium forecasts about 43,000 new passenger and freighter aircraft from 2026 to 2045, worth $3.2 trillion in 2026 dollars. That’s down from its 2025 forecast of 46,500.
How does the shortage affect airlines? Airlines are keeping older aircraft flying longer, spending more on maintenance, paying higher lease rates, and burning more fuel than newer jets would. The average fleet age has reached a record 15.2 years, and IATA estimates supply chain failures cost airlines at least $11 billion in 2025.
Sources:
- Cirium — Cirium Fleet Forecast Projects 43,000 Aircraft Deliveries, 2026–2045 (October 13, 2026)
- AeroTime — Report: Airlines Will Face Shortage of New Airplanes Until at Least 2030 (October 13, 2026)
- IATA — IATA Outlines Four Priorities to Strengthen the Aviation Supply Chain (June 24, 2026)
- Forbes — Airbus, Boeing Face $3.2 Trillion Aircraft Market — If They Can Deliver (October 13, 2026)
- Boeing — Pilot and Technician Outlook
